Wildcats Playoff Picture Explained

As we enter the final round of the 2021/22 NBL Season, the Perth Wildcats can finish anywhere from second to fifth.

The Wildcats take on Illawarra on Friday and South East Melbourne on Sunday, with both game set to play a major role in determining which teams join Melbourne and Sydney in the Finals and where they will finish.

For Wildcats to make Finals

In short, the only way for the Perth Wildcats to guarantee a Finals berth, is by winning both games this weekend.

However, given the Wildcats will start the round with 6.3% advantage over Tasmania in the tie-breaking points percentage column, one win will almost certainly get them to their 36^th consecutive NBL Finals campaign.

For the below scenarios, we’ll assume that Tasmania cannot make up the 137-point differential between themselves at the Wildcats, as it requires an average margin of over 40 points in all three games involving either team.

For Wildcats to miss Finals

The scenario that sees the Wildcats miss the post-season is if they drop both games this weekend, and Tasmania defeat Melbourne on Saturday.

The JackJumpers will be playing for their lives while United have already sewn up top-spot.

For Wildcats to finish second

For the Wildcats to earn home court advantage in the semi-finals, they’ll need to win both games and see Sydney lose both of their games, while also overcoming a 0.94 percentage deficit with Illawarra.

For Wildcats to finish third

If Perth win both games and the Kings defeat Illawarra on Sunday, they will jump the Hawks to finish third and play Sydney in the semi-finals.

If Perth defeat Illawarra only, and the Hawks lose to Sydney as well, the Wildcats could also jump the Hawks provided they make up the 0.94% differential.

For Wildcats to finish fourth

Perth could finish fourth if they win both, one, or zero games this weekend.

If they win both games, but Illawarra beat Sydney and maintain their percentage advantage, the Wildcats will stay in fourth.

If they win one game, the only way they will climb to third is if Illawarra lose both games and the Wildcats overtake them on percentage.

If Perth lose both games, but Tasmania do not defeat Melbourne United on Saturday, they will remain in fourth.

In all of these scenarios, the Wildcats will play Melbourne in the semi-finals.